5 Signs that You’re Betting on a Winning Horse
Horse racing betting can be a profitable venture if you have done your research beforehand. This is especially true for beginners since they don’t have the experience. On the other hand, it can also be a massive loss of money, especially if you’re unprepared.
If you think that horse racing betting only involves luck, you’d be very wrong, as even a little research can be the difference between winning or losing your bets. But how exactly do you research horse racing betting?
Looking into the horses themselves is a great way to start your research. Horses are temperamental creatures. They are highly unpredictable and fragile. Fortunately, there are some signs you can look for in a horse that lets you gauge how it will perform in the upcoming race.
From looking at its track record to its behavior on the field, these factors can be used to see if the horse has the potential to win the race.
One good way to start your horse research is to look at their track record. Generally, a horse with good form, or more specifically, that has won consistently in the first three places, is an excellent bet. We’ll emphasize the word “recent” here since it’s important that those races are recent, or they won’t be relevant info anymore.
You also have to see the factors of those who win. For example, you can look at the track surface or the type of race the horse won. The track surface is essential since it can be the boon or the bane of a specific horse type.
Also, every type of thoroughbred prefers different types of race. With all that in mind, you should always check the race to do some cross-referencing.
If you look at the glossary of horse terms on TVG, we’re not referring to the level of attractiveness that the jockeys have; instead, we’re looking to see if their horse jockey has been doing well recently.
Sometimes, horses can have their jockeys changed at the last minute, which is why it’s important to see the track record of that jockey. If the jockey had consistent wins in his last races, it might be the difference between a winning or losing horse. It can still be a good bet if the horse had no recent wins, but the jockey had.
Amount of Rest
Many people think that the amount of rest a horse has little to no effect on its performance. However, that couldn’t be more wrong. It has a significant effect on a horse in its upcoming race.
Remember, they are living beings, and every living being needs some rest. If a horse didn’t have enough rest lately, it might be too sluggish to race, but if it just came out from a long rest, it might not be at its peak physical performance.
What should be the amount necessary for a horse to be fully-rested?
It entirely depends on the horse, but experts would say between 30 to 60 days in total. However, you should also note that even if the horse had enough rest over the past month, it would take 1 or 2 races to regain its peak physical condition.
This one is quite simple, and it boils down to the experience of the horse. To be concise, a horse with experience in the current race has a good chance of winning. This percentage would even go further up the more the horse won the race.
For example, if the horse has a history of winning the Kentucky Derby not once but twice, the bigger its chance will be to win the next Kentucky Derby. You don’t even have to look for wins alone since having a good finish in the past Kentucky Derbies is already enough.
Going to the races itself can be a privilege for some, so if you have a chance to go, you should take it. Why? It’s because it is fun and you have a chance to check the horses up close and personal.
This is a massive advantage because you can see a horse’s temperament just before they go to their paddocks. If you notice that a horse is shifty, irritable, and just overall looking nervous, you can say that it’s not ready to race, making it not viable for a bet.
On the other hand, if a horse has steady steps and a calm demeanor, you can bet your money that it’s ready to race.
Strategies for Betting on a Winning Horse
There are several strategies for betting on a winning horse. Some people use small bets just for social reasons. Others use this strategy to increase payouts. Here are some tips for you to consider:
Laying the favorite in betting exchanges
Even though it’s a risky move, laying the favorite in betting exchanges is a very profitable strategy. It involves spotting conditions that favor favorites and backing them instead. For example, if a horse is carrying extra weight or a penalty, it’s not a true market leader, and the official handicapper rating suggests that it lacks the quality to concede weight.
Laying the favorite is a strategy when betting on a horse race. In betting exchanges, you can choose to back the favorite or bet against him. By laying the favorite, you’ll win regardless of whether the horse finishes first or second. The reason a favorite rarely wins more than 50 percent of races is that it’s much more likely to lose. By laying the favorite, you can win a much higher payout than if you back the favorite.
Using a track master sheet to calculate odds
When you’re betting on a horse race, it’s important to understand the odds on a winning horse. A win odds will tell you how much money you can expect to win with every bet. For example, if the winning horse is 20-1, you’ll get $20 for every $1 you bet. If you bet $2 and the horse wins, you’ll get $42 back. You can use breakage to make sure the payout is rounded to the nearest nickel or dime.
You’ll also need to take into account the trainer’s winning percentage. A trainer who only has a handful of horses will rarely be in the top three. You should also keep track of the trainer’s success with horses of various classes and ages. Some trainers are better with stakes horses, while others are better with claiming horses. It’s also helpful to know the jockey’s record.
Using the morning line
The first step in using the morning line to bet on a winning horse is to look at the odds of the first four or five horses in the race. Then, compare those odds to the morning line. Then, you can make a multiple-race wager based on the morning line. Remember, this is just an estimate. There is no way to guarantee that the morning line is correct.
Another key to using the morning line when betting on a winning race is to look at the odds on the day of the race. The odds on the morning line are not necessarily representative of what the public will be betting on. Horses can be a lot more or less ‘valued’ than their initial odds suggest. For example, a horse that is eight-to-1 may be a live longshot.
Another important factor to remember when using the morning line is that many unforeseeable events can affect the odds. For example, a favorite could scratch, which would make the final odds lower. Another scenario might be a jockey who has won six races in a row, leading to heavy support for his seventh mount. Using the morning line can help you make an informed decision on whether a horse is a longshot or a popular favorite. If a favorite is priced at a very low price, you may want to avoid betting on that particular horse.
Even though we can’t see the future, we can still gauge how a horse will perform by looking at them with these factors. However, remember that even though a particular horse has all these signs, it doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed win. Horse racing still involves luck, after all.